Markets brace for a volatile week as the US CPI release on Tuesday takes center stage. With weak jobs data boosting rate cut expectations and JPMorgan moving its Fed forecast forward to September, traders will be watching closely. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPO buzz adds fuel to financial sector sentiment, while August’s historically weak seasonality looms large. Key levels on the US500, US100, Dow, DAX, and Bitcoin will guide short-term moves, with earnings from BigBear.ai, CoreWeave, and Applied Materials highlighting the corporate calendar.
Weekly Market Sentiment
📰 This week opens under a cloud of short-term volatility, with the US CPI release on Tuesday set to dictate market tone. Rate cut expectations are gaining traction following weak employment data, and JPMorgan now projects a September cut. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPO buzz adds an extra layer to financial sector sentiment. August’s historically negative seasonality looms large, making key technical levels on US500, US100, Dow, DAX, and BTC critical for traders.
Bias:
• Short-term: Volatile, with potential for downside tests.
• Medium-to-long term: Bullish trend intact.
Top catalysts:
1) 📊 US CPI (Tuesday)
2) 📉 Rising rate cut odds post-weak jobs data
3) 🏦 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac IPO developments
4) 📅 JPMorgan moving Fed cut forecast to September
5) 📆 August’s negative seasonality pattern
Index & Asset Technical Levels – 11 Aug to 15 Aug 2025
US30 (Dow Jones)
- ⏫ High: 44,281.10
- ⏬ Low: 43,976.10
- 📍 Close: 44,246.20
- Bias: Short-term volatile/new lows; medium-long term bullish
- Resistance: 44,281 / 44,500
- Support: 43,976 / 43,800
US500 (S&P 500)
- ⏫ High: 6,401.10
- ⏬ Low: 6,345.50
- 📍 Close: 6,400.50 (All-time high)
- Bias: Short-term volatility/downtrend; medium-long term bullish
- Resistance: 6,401 / 6,420+
- Support: 6,345 / 6,300
US100 (Nasdaq 100)
- ⏫ High: 23,660.20
- ⏬ Low: 23,400.90
- 📍 Close: 23,656.90
- Bias: Short-term volatility/downtrend; medium-long term bullish
- Resistance: 23,660 / 23,750
- Support: 23,400 / 23,250
DAX (Germany 40)
- ⏫ High: 24,395.35
- ⏬ Low: 23,479.35
- 📍 Close: 24,225.00
- Bias: Short-term: US CPI inflation will direct course – volatility and downtrend foreseen; Medium-to-long term: Bullish
- Resistance: 24,395 / 24,500
- Support: 23,479 / 23,300
Bitcoin (BTC)
- ⏫ High: 119,117.68
- ⏬ Low: 112,622.14
- 📍 Close: 118,677.97
- Bias: Short-term: Bullish as there are talks of approval for crypto investments in 401(k) plans; Medium-to-long term: Bullish
- Resistance: 119,118 / 120,000
- Support: 112,622 / 111,000
Upcoming Earnings – 11 to 15 August 2025
Monday – Aug 11
⏰ Before Market Open: Barrick Mining (B), Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR)
🌙 After Market Close: BigBear.ai (BBAI), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Archer Aviation (ACHR), 3D Systems Corp (DDD), USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR)
Tuesday – Aug 12
⏰ Before Market Open: Circle Internet Group (CRCL), TenCent Music Entertainment Group (TME), Nano-X Imaging Ltd (NNOX), Rapid Micro Biosystems (RPID)
🌙 After Market Close: CoreWeave (CRWV), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), Luminar Technologies (LAZR)
Wednesday – Aug 13
⏰ Before Market Open: Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT), CAE Inc (CAE), TenCent Holdings (TCEHY)
🌙 After Market Close: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Equinox Gold (EQX)
Thursday – Aug 14
⏰ Before Market Open: JD.com (JD), Deere & Co (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT)
🌙 After Market Close: Applied Materials (AMAT), KULR Technology (KULR), Starz (STRZ), Biostem Technologies (BSEM), Sidus Space (SIDU)